Us Equity And Related Statistics

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But I think that with this backdrop of post cyclical policy combo lifting U.S. earnings, we’ve also turned more bullish on high-yield corporate credit – that is bonds which are riskier. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. The final stages were a recession in government thanks to DOGE, a rate of change trough in expectations around AI CapEx growth and trade policy, and a recession in consumer services that is still ongoing. While fundamentals in corporate and securitized credit remain solid, the very scale of issuance ahead points to spread widening investment rate and in data center related ABS. So, from unsecured to structured and securitized credit in both public markets and private markets, credit will likely play a central role in enabling the next wave of AI related investments.

Improved fiscal policy in some large EM countries stands in contrast to our theme of leveraging up happening in DM. Immutable economic laws – such as supply chains can’t be rewired overnight – are easing policy uncertainty on trade and should support a risk-on stance in EM, encouraging further capital inflows and firmer currencies. Emerging market (EM) stocks and bonds are off to a strong start to the year following a stellar 2025.

Higher Gains For Us Stocks

We think emerging market (EM) assets can build on a solid start after a strong 2025. We see the bullish themes that drove emerging market outperformance in 2025 still playing out – though we think selectivity is key as dispersion rises. We also like high yield emerging market issuers, and think increased dispersion could create opportunities for active returns. And the industrial metals needed to power the technology Everestex reviews are largely located in emerging market regions. We see several broad factors driving emerging market returns.

Key Takeaways From Expert Forecasts That Can Help Your Financial Plan

This provides a stable macro backdrop for EM economies, even with episodic, policy-driven volatility. South Korean stocks have surged more than 20% after last year’s big gains, while India is still lagging even with the recent U.S. trade deal. 2025’s outperformance was led by tech and the AI theme. We focus on mega forces driving returns in EM stocks – notably in AI across tech hardware in Asia and commodity-linked shares in Latin America. The S&P 500 fell slightly but rebounded from lows driven by a global selloff. We prefer EM hard currency debt and are selective in EM equities.

• How is that factoring into your team’s view on growth and inflation for the next year?
• And we see rewiring global supply chains and stronger commodity prices benefiting Mexico, Brazil and Vietnam.
• Six to 12-month tactical views on selected assets vs. broad global asset classes by level of conviction, February 2026

After Earnings, Is Palantir Stock A Buy, A Sell, Or Fairly Valued?

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Solid global growth gives emerging market economies a stable backdrop even with sections of episodic, policy-driven volatility. Fixed-income markets may rally in the first half of 2026 as central banks pivot from inflation control to equilibrium management. European and emerging market equities aren’t likely to benefit from similar tailwinds that are boosting U.S. stocks. But it also means that, looking deeper into next year, if growth disappoints, fiscal concerns could emerge as a risk factor challenging the market. So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say? And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.

• Risk assets are poised for a strong year in a friendly policy and macroeconomic environment, with U.S. stocks outperforming peers.
• Fresh U.S. inflation and jobs data this week should clarify whether January’s price pressures fade and if the labor market’s “no hiring, no firing” stasis holds.
• Our forecasts reflect this upside to earnings which is another reason why many stocks are not as expensive as they appear despite our acknowledgement that some areas of the market may appear somewhat frothy.
• Gold prices bounced after their slide from all-time highs.

There doesn’t appear an obvious political setup to shift policies to deal with elevated U.S. deficits, meaning the burden is on better growth to deal with this issue. Or, Democrats could win so decisively on economic and affordability issues that the White House considers standalone stimulus measures, like reducing some tariffs. If we’re wrong, it’s likely because the economy slows and tips into recession, making fiscal stimulus more politically appealing—consistent with historical patterns. Any majority would be slim, and fiscal hawks in the party nearly blocked the last round of cuts due to concerns over spending offsets.

• And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there’ve got to be things where we’re either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.
• More promisingly, the market is up 14% over the past year.
• But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot.
• The table below reflects this and, importantly, leaves aside the opportunity for alpha, or the potential to generate above-benchmark returns – especially at a time of heightened volatility.
• I consult or invest on behalf of a financial institution.

Future potential moves investors are watching, like additional regulation or targeted stimulus, would likely come the same way. The administration has leaned heavily on executive powers to set trade policy, including the so-called Liberation Day tariffs, and to push regulatory changes. While Democrats are favored today, redistricting, turnout, and evolving voter concerns could reshape the landscape in the months to come. It might not be too early to think about the midterms as a market catalyst.

Interest Rates

Ironically, the government shutdown has weakened the economy further, but has also delayed Fed action due to the lack of labor data releases. In short, we believe a new bull market and rolling recovery began in April which means it’s still early days, and not obvious—especially for many lagging parts of the economy and market. From our perspective, the policy choices being made are growth positive for 2026 and are largely in line with our ‘run it hot’ thesis.

• Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty.
• The story was different for consumer companies, which collectively had a difficult earnings season.
• Companies and economies are likely to benefit from AI-related productivity gains, while global disinflation and growth should converge toward a sustainable pace in 2027—with potential for further upside.
• Since 1999, we’ve been a leading provider of financial technology, and our clients turn to us for the solutions they need when planning for their most important goals.
• You talked about asset classes, bullish on U.S. equities.

It can mean faster growth and less inflation. It’s part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. It’s using up current resources in the economy, and it’s got to be somewhat inflationary. How is that factoring into your team’s view on growth and inflation for the next year? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again.